Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 4.927852 5.885287 6.949223 8.214883 9.674956 11.301795 13.246789
2025-02-16 3.426829 4.618991 6.081505 7.990137 10.395659 13.305733 17.068942
2025-02-23 2.460352 3.688689 5.330166 7.646058 10.784509 14.839524 20.415527
2025-03-02 1.814456 2.997009 4.703222 7.280503 10.997032 16.071561 23.411893
2025-03-09 1.452227 2.613604 4.405295 7.274492 11.633480 17.862765 27.252336
2025-03-16 1.190537 2.320459 4.174013 7.302644 12.280561 19.683191 31.244967
2025-03-23 0.981082 2.064022 3.946787 7.284241 12.824237 21.364961 35.135490
2025-03-30 0.772568 1.759583 3.580948 6.973168 12.846513 22.227500 37.828346
2025-04-06 0.648605 1.587102 3.413570 6.966403 13.346943 23.852302 41.788721
2025-04-13 0.542487 1.425540 3.236301 6.910013 13.742535 25.320327 45.582280
2025-04-20 0.498104 1.387988 3.292030 7.287906 14.929194 28.174259 51.806500
2025-04-27 0.447629 1.324566 3.283577 7.536633 15.897474 30.717042 57.663828
2025-05-04 0.408292 1.281954 3.317599 7.884224 17.101941 33.790571 64.683127
2025-05-11 0.347613 1.169650 3.180448 7.863198 17.601925 35.658244 69.754959
2025-05-18 0.281687 1.024086 2.940237 7.588160 17.570806 36.555927 73.172731
2025-05-25 0.224399 0.884963 2.687484 7.245823 17.360100 37.091938 75.958415
2025-06-01 0.192706 0.814496 2.592454 7.246840 17.854073 38.981526 81.312023
2025-06-08 0.166906 0.755089 2.514966 7.277262 18.409578 41.021153 87.055029
2025-06-15 0.143195 0.694853 2.423423 7.259707 18.855132 42.868672 92.533105
2025-06-22 0.114453 0.604568 2.227322 6.949800 18.612562 43.314999 95.340913
2025-06-29 0.098495 0.558563 2.152696 6.943140 19.059989 45.191282 101.029765
2025-07-06 0.083726 0.511402 2.064485 6.886941 19.383482 46.826884 106.325755
2025-07-13 0.079755 0.511842 2.130174 7.263758 20.776705 50.801141 116.504684